Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BUALOI-19 in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam from 19 Oct 2019 00:00 UTC to 21 Oct 2019 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUALOI-19

in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BUALOI-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (23 Oct 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	222 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	241 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

222 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2800 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Oct 2019 00:00	167	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
2	19 Oct 2019 06:00	130	50 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
3	19 Oct 2019 12:00	157	50 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	19 Oct 2019 18:00	194	60 thousand	4 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	20 Oct 2019 00:00	204	60 thousand	6 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	20 Oct 2019 06:00	213	60 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	20 Oct 2019 12:00	213	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	20 Oct 2019 18:00	213	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
9	21 Oct 2019 00:00	222	70 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
10	21 Oct 2019 06:00	231	50 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
11	21 Oct 2019 12:00	231	370 thousand	2 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation
12	21 Oct 2019 18:00	222	90 thousand	3 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	10.3, 156.7
2	19 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	10.8, 155.2
3	19 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11, 153.7
4	19 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.4, 152.4
5	20 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	11.6, 151.3
6	20 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	12.2, 150.4
7	20 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.7, 149.8
8	20 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	8700 people	13.3, 149	Northern Mariana Islands
9	21 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	51000 people	14.1, 148.2	Northern Mariana Islands
10	21 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	52000 people	14.7, 147.6	Northern Mariana Islands
11	21 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	51000 people	15.4, 146.8	Northern Mariana Islands
12	21 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	51000 people	16.3, 145.9	Northern Mariana Islands
12	22 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18, 144.3
12	22 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	19.8, 142.9
12	23 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	222	<1000 people	<1000 people	21.9, 141.9
12	23 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 4	213	2800 people	2800 people	24.2, 141.3
12	24 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	1700 people	29.8, 142.8
12	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	37000 people	36.2, 146.8	Russian Federation
12	26 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	42.3, 152.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Iwo To (Iwo Jima)	IWO	113	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8700

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands
Minami Lo		Japan
Iwo Jima		Japan
Haha		Japan
Omura		Japan
Muko		Japan

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Higashi, Japan. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2019 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (116 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 21 Oct 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	23 Oct 2019 20:00	Higashi	Japan	0.6
	24 Oct 2019 04:00	Oki	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 04:00	Hyogidaira	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 06:00	Omura	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 06:00	Ogigaura	Japan	0.5
	24 Oct 2019 06:00	Sakaiura	Japan	0.5
	23 Oct 2019 22:00	Ishinomura	Japan	0.3
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Choshi	Japan	0.3
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Okunoya	Japan	0.3
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Yatabe	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kashima	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Omi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Hamatsuga	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Aotsuka	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kyuchu	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Koya	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Komagamine	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Nakumura	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tsurishi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Haragama	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Asahi Yokaichiba	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Natsumi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Onaba	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kiyohashi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Taiyo	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Otake	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Dainigorisawa	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Muyokama	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kyochikama	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Sakamoto	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Iso	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Naraha	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kami-Shigeoka	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ide	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tomioka	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Oragahama	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Hokota	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Tachiya	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Umekawa	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Isobe	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kami-Asamigawa	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Shimo-Kitabo	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ena	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Aratame	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Shimo-Takaku	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Toyoma	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Katsuori	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Noda	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Takahira	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Minami-Ibi	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kayahama	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kubota	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ueda	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Terashita	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Hirakata	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Omori	Japan	0.2
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Shirane	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Toyooka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kuji	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Mizuki	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Futaba	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Narusawa	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Moto-Kawarago	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ohahama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 15:00	Kamigama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Yamashita	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Yokoyama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kasano	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Hanagama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Odaka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Arayashik	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Yotsukura	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Onahama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Nagasuna	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Nakaminato	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Shibamachi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 06:00	Katakai	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kitakubo	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ono-Yasashi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Yunami	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kisara	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Isohara	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Shuku	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Obama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Asahi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 16:00	Oyagaw	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tokawacho	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Inuwaka	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Watari	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Hayakawa	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Warabi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kaikomba	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Arahama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Kabasaki	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kashima	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Fushiko-tobuto	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Sangenchaya	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Ninokura	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Ainokama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kawaziri	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Kawajiri	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Hama	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tomobe	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Soeno	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tanebe	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 17:00	Ogushi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Odaito	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tokotan	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Bekkai	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Svetloye	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Nishi-wada	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Nemuro	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 06:00	Ohara	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Hitachi	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Ogitsu	Japan	0.1
	25 Oct 2019 18:00	Tajirihama	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.